SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy.

Journal: Communications biology

Volume: 4

Issue: 1

Year of Publication: 2021

Affiliated Institutions:  Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA. Institute of Human Virology and Global Virus Network Center, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. Emerging Pathogens Institute & Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy. Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy. Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science, University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Rome, Italy. National HIV/AIDS Researh Center, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy. Anthropology, and Applied Ethics, Campus Bio-Medico University, Rome, Italy. Department of Mental Health and Public Medicine, University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli", Naples, Italy. Department of Biochemical Sciences "A. Rossi Fanelli", University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy. ICBR, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Policlinico Umberto I Università 'Sapienza', Rome, Italy. Laboratory of Molecular Virology, International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB), Trieste, Italy. KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. Department Infectious Diseases, - Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "A. Gemelli" IRCCS, Rome, Italy. Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. Department of Mathematics, University of Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Emerging Pathogens Institute & Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. salemi@pathology.ufl.edu. Institute of Human Virology and Global Virus Network Center, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA. Dzella@ihv.umaryland.edu. Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy. m.ciccozzi@unicampus.it.

Abstract summary 

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.

Authors & Co-authors:  Giovanetti Marta M Cella Eleonora E Benedetti Francesca F Rife Magalis Brittany B Fonseca Vagner V Fabris Silvia S Campisi Giovanni G Ciccozzi Alessandra A Angeletti Silvia S Borsetti Alessandra A Tambone Vittoradolfo V Sagnelli Caterina C Pascarella Stefano S Riva Alberto A Ceccarelli Giancarlo G Marcello Alessandro A Azarian Taj T Wilkinson Eduan E de Oliveira Tulio T Alcantara Luiz Carlos Junior LCJ Cauda Roberto R Caruso Arnaldo A Dean Natalie E NE Browne Cameron C Lourenco Jose J Salemi Marco M Zella Davide D Ciccozzi Massimo M

Study Outcome 

Source Link: Visit source

Statistics
Citations :  Andersen KG, Rambaut A, Lipkin WI, Holmes EC, Garry RF. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nat. Med. 2020;26:450–452. doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0820-9.
Authors :  28
Identifiers
Doi : 489
SSN : 2399-3642
Study Population
Male,Female
Mesh Terms
COVID-19
Other Terms
Study Design
Cross Sectional Study
Study Approach
Country of Study
Publication Country
England