Suicide attempt risk predicts inconsistent self-reported suicide attempts: A machine learning approach using longitudinal data.

Journal: Journal of affective disorders

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Affiliated Institutions:  Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: haghish@uio.no. Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Norway; Department of Mental Disorders, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway. National Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, Institute for Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Norway. Department of Psychology, University of Oslo, Norway; RITMO Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies in Rhythm, Time and Motion, University of Oslo, Norway.

Abstract summary 

Inconsistent self-reports of lifetime suicide attempts (LSAs) are a major obstacle for accurate assessment of suicidal behavior. This study is the first to posit that adolescents at higher risk report LSAs more consistently than those at lower risk, revealing a link between suicide attempt risk and consistent reporting.A machine learning model was trained with 70 % of the baseline assessment data of a longitudinal sample of Norwegian adolescents (n = 10,739). The model was used to estimate the LSA risk score for the remaining 30 % of the testing dataset. The relationship between these baseline risk scores and the consistency of reporting LSAs was assessed using a 2-year follow-up reassessment of the testing dataset.Internalizing problems, optimism about the future, conduct problems, substance use, and disordered eating were important factors associated with suicide attempt risk. Of the participants, 63.41 % had inconsistent self-reports at the two-year follow-up. Adolescents who consistently reported LSAs had significantly higher scores of suicide attempt risk at baseline. Two logistic regression analyses confirmed an association between suicide attempt risk and inconsistent self-reported LSAs and showed that sex (being male), and lower levels of depression and conduct problems significantly predicted such inconsistencies. Those who inconsistently reported LSAs were more likely than the others to be classified by the model as false negatives at the baseline risk assessment due to their lower estimated risk scores.Suicide attempts were measured with a single item in this study.These risk factors support the theory of adolescent suicidality (TAS) and could improve suicide attempt risk assessment. Inconsistent self-reported LSAs signal lower suicide attempt risk.

Authors & Co-authors:  Haghish Czajkowski Walby Qin Laeng

Study Outcome 

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Statistics
Citations : 
Authors :  5
Identifiers
Doi : S0165-0327(24)00557-3
SSN : 1573-2517
Study Population
Male,Female
Mesh Terms
Other Terms
Adolescents;False negative;Inconsistent self-reported suicide attempts;Machine learning classification;Risk estimation
Study Design
Study Approach
Country of Study
Publication Country
Netherlands